Egypt Business Network

Egypt Business Network

Posts 1-10 of 11
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Water shortages
    Political wrangling, climate change, pollution and mismanagement threaten to make water shortages a problem for everyone.



    T wenty-eight-year-old Hend Moktar has learned the hard way that there are few things as precious as clean water. Every day she wakes up wondering whether she will be able to collect enough of the cloudy, yellow-tinged liquid dripping from the taps to bathe her two children, let alone do the laundry.

    Drinking the water, which smells of sulfur, is out of the question, says Moktar, who lives in Hod El-Kantara, a poor neighborhood in Heliopolis. Her family is left to subsist on the water she collects from a local mosque and relatives that live 30 minutes’ drive away.

    “People here know it is unfit for human use, but what can they do? That’s the only water that their houses can have,” she says.

    Many living in Cairo’s numerous slums face similar problems; forced to conserve the little water they have, they buy the rest, spending their modest incomes on a commodity that should be readily available. These same citizens are victims of the nation’s haphazard attempts to modernize water distribution systems — a network not designed to handle the country’s 80 million people.

    However, within a decade, the problem may no longer be confined to poor communities. The entire country could face shortages and contamination as uncontrolled population growth, higher levels of water pollution, rising seawater levels in the Delta and inefficient farming practices take their toll on Egypt’s lifeline: the Nile.

    These trends could cripple the nation’s agro-industries and threaten food security in the not-so-distant future. Part of the problem stems from the fact that water use is unregulated and while experts say Egyptians care about conservation, a recent report suggests otherwise.

    Water specialists say Egypt is at a crossroad: Either it must improve its water treatment programs and invest in modern irrigation techniques or risk squandering water resources and endangering the livelihoods of its poorest citizens.

    “Available resources are rather limited, while the demand is rapidly growing,” says Dr. Khaled El-Askari, an infrastructure expert at the African Development Bank, which has invested heavily in water projects around Africa. “As a result, some water users are likely to face water shortages.”

    Overtaxed
    Winding its way across Eastern Africa, the Nile River is the lifeblood of millions in the region who depend on its waters for crops, drinking water and hydro-electric energy. Egyptians are no exception, reaping the benefits of the Aswan High Dam, with the river providing almost 100% of the country’s irrigation resources.

    The country had access to approximately 64 billion cubic meters of water in 2006, with the Nile, underground aquifers, recycled water and annual precipitation cited as sources in a June report by government think-tank The Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC).

    This total is set to increase to 71.4 billion cubic meters by 2017 due to Nile Basin development projects, increased use of underground aquifers and investment in water recycling initiatives. But despite these efforts, the IDSC predicts that by 2017 Egypt will have to tackle a water deficit just shy of 15 billion cubic meters.

    The National Water Research Center (NWRC) forecasts that water needs will increase so much that the country will, in effect, need a second Nile to meet demand in 2050, when the country is conservatively forecast to have 120 million people.

    Egypt, along with 15 other Arab countries, is already under the water poverty line (the amount of water the UN deems necessary for a basic standard of living), according to the World Bank. Today the country runs on 750 cubic meters of water annually, about 35% less than in 1986. The think-tank predicts that the total will fall further, hitting 582 cubic meters by 2025.

    Further upstream, the future looks even bleaker. Approximately 150 million people live in the Nile River Basin, a number expected to double in less than 25 years, which will put enormous pressure on shared resources.

    Due to the effects of growing populations, poor resource management, deforestation and climate change, upstream countries, which have traditionally relied on rain-fed agriculture, are suffering from more frequent drought and famine.

    These issues are the focus of ongoing talks under the auspices of the Nile Basin Initiative. Launched 10 years ago by the water ministries of the nine basin countries — Egypt, Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya — the initiative was formed to facilitate cooperation and a multilateral approach to developing the river’s resources. Thus far, negotiations have failed to produce a formal agreement for sharing the river. During discussions in July, Egypt and Sudan refused, again, to broach the topic of giving up their historical rights that give them control over the lion’s share of the river’s flow.

    Nile Grab
    Analysts do not believe the political deadlock will escalate, as once feared, into an armed conflict. They say, however, that the talks could last for years, depriving impoverished upriver countries of development opportunities.

    “It won’t be easy for them to [come to an agreement],” says Sharif El-Musa, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo and an expert on water conflicts. “I think the best thing is to find a quid pro quo outside the water situation. Egypt has been trying to do something with Ethiopia and [is under pressure from critics] to improve its relations and economic cooperation with the Upper Nile countries.”

    In the meantime, Egypt needs to focus on its own water development projects, particularly in the area of sewage and wastewater treatment, says World Bank water resource specialist Hany El-Sadani.

    The issue caught fire in the media after authorities discovered that the typhoid outbreak in Al-Barada’a, near Qalyoubeya City, was linked to drinking water contaminated with raw sewage. World Bank research shows, however, that water quality in Upper Egypt and the Cairo area is generally good, says El-Sadani.

    Farther north is another story. After the Nile passes through the capital, it branches off into various canals, before arriving at farms in the Delta. The water used by farms is siphoned off into Nile drains that make up their own network as they continue north.

    According to El-Sadani, several drains across the region have become polluted with raw sewage, industrial waste and other contaminants because there are too few water treatment plants. This could have significant consequences, as drain water left untreated will no longer be able to be reused and recycled, a major part of the country’s plan to meet water demand in the future.

    Polluted canals are also epicenters for disease and are dangerous to human health, particularly if the drains are used for drinking water, washing or as a source for irrigation.

    “When you go to the Delta you start finding hot spots [severely polluted drains] that you need to deal with, mainly because of the lack of water sanitation facilities,” says El-Sadani. “If the channels are polluted, they cannot be used. Drains are where you really start seeing the problems. The government wants to pump water from the drains into the canals for reuse and the possibility of doing so drops if you have high pollution,” he says.

    Climate Control
    The Delta is also likely to suffer from global warming. Scientists predict that climate change will reduce Nile flows, particularly as it passes through the Ethiopian Highlands, an area already seeing prolonged droughts.

    Muddying the waters further is the issue of higher water levels. A study by SWITCH, a global research group funded by the European Union, shows sea levels are already on the rise, causing higher spring tides and worse winter storms, while filling fields with agriculturally toxic salt water.

    It predicts water levels may increase by between 0.5m and 1m in the next 100 years if nothing is done to reverse carbon emissions, the driving force behind global warming. Should this happen, 30% of Alexandria will be lost to the sea, says SWITCH, although some local experts dispute those findings.

    Drought is another cause of climatic concern, says El-Sadani. Much of Eastern Africa is enduring longer-than-usual drought conditions, which will likely lead to higher rates of evaporation and lower water levels in the High Dam.

    “If [the drought] lasts a limited period, Egypt can cope with that. If it is longer, there will be the need to take exceptional steps,” says El-Sadani.

    Even small changes in climate could have large repercussions, especially for the Delta, the country’s bread basket.

    Leading environmental scientists David Yates and Kenneth Strzepek studied the effects climate change could have on agricultural Egypt. They found that modern irrigation techniques, the use of heavy machinery, the introduction of heat-resistant crops and changes in planting schedules could help offset the effects of climate change. If nothing is done, however, production will drop, forcing Egypt to import more food and putting small farmers out of business.

    Avoiding that outcome will take a great deal of investment in small agriculture operations, say non-governmental organizations, such as CARE Egypt, a development group that works with poor farmers to promote efficient irrigation.

    Many farmers grow crops that are water intensive, such as rice and sugarcane, which needs to change, says Samir Sedky, a program manager for CARE Egypt. This will be difficult to do because the majority of farms are small, family-run operations that use outdated technology and do not have the resources to afford better technology.

    “The rich countries support their farmers [with subsidies] and we cannot compete,” he says. “Egypt does not support its farmers the same way because of financial limitations.”

    While the government is sponsoring grassroots projects like the ones CARE runs in partnership with the World Bank, the African Development Bank and USAID, it has also put hundreds of millions of dollars into more ambitious projects to reclaim desert land for agricultural use.

    The largest project is Toshka in the Western Desert, just 50 kilometers from Lake Nasser. Begun in 1997, Toshka’s goal is to turn more than 540,000 feddans (2,200 square kilometers) of desert into farmland, boosting agricultural exports and creating jobs. But there is little evidence that the project will meet its 2017 target. That being said, some of the government’s other reclamation projects, are bearing fruit. The Al-Salam Canal, which brings water from the Delta under the Suez Canal, is facilitating irrigation in northern Sinai.

    Water Works
    There are a number of ways Egypt could bolster its water supplies, such as desalination and the exploitation of aquifers, say specialists. Many believe the main focus should be to figure out ways of efficiently managing existing resources.

    “Water has always been relatively scarce in the Arabian Peninsula, but people have survived here for a long time, just not in these numbers,” says El-Musa. “It really depends on the overall water situation, agricultural production, food prices and the economy. How can you predict all of that?”

    Like many Egyptians, Moktar, a mother of two, lives with that uncertainty everyday. She spends a lot of her time worrying about where the next glass of water will come from.

    We might be without [tap] water for a week or 10 days,” she says solemnly. “People who visit me don’t bring fruits or chocolates. Those aren’t important. They bring me water bags as a gift.”



    By Jessica Gray / Financial Times
    • 08 Dec 2009, 8:08 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    UN and EU officials have welcomed the US declaration that greenhouse gases are threatening to human health.

    An EU spokesman said the announcement showed "a degree of resolve" on the part of President Barack Obama to address climate change.

    The US move came as delegates from 192 countries got down to work at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

    Danish PM Lars Loekke Rasmussen has said the summit is an "opportunity the world cannot afford to miss".

    The US declaration could mean the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can order cuts in emissions without the approval of Congress.

    Action that will reduce man-made climate change. This includes action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or absorb greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Glossary in full Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN scientific network on climate change, said the Obama administration was "showing what it can do, even while legislation is pending". "It also sends a powerful signal to Congress. It shows a degree of resolve on the part of the president," he said.

    The environment minister for Sweden - which currently holds the EU presidency - said the outcome of the summit depended mostly "on what will be delivered by the United States and China".

    Andreas Carlgren said he would be "astonished" if US President Barack Obama did not offer further concessions when he arrives at the summit next week.

    The US announcement had been expected for some time, but still sends an important signal to leaders attending the summit that Mr Obama is intent on passing legislation to curb emissions.

    As the Copenhagen summit opened, Mr Rasmussen told delegates the world was looking to them to safeguard humanity. He said a "strong and ambitious climate change agreement" was needed. "By the end, we must be able to deliver back to the world what was granted us here today: hope for a better future."

    Connie Hedegaard, conference president, said political will to address climate change has never been - and never will be - stronger. "This is our chance. If we miss it, it could take years before we got a new and better one. If ever," she said.

    UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has praised France for taking political leadership in the climate change debate. He said President Nicolas Sarkozy had been "instrumental in bringing the current stage of the negotiation to where we are now".

    Meanwhile British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he wants European leaders to commit to deeper cuts in carbon emissions than previously agreed.

    The EU has so far only been willing to increase its emissions target if an international deal is reached at the Copenhagen climate summit.

    Mr Brown's comments come as the UK's official climate watchdog said a new aviation policy was needed to limit an increase in flights.

    The report by the independent Committee on Climate Change said it had discussed ideas like levying extra taxes and issuing flying allowances to reduce air travel.

    The main areas for discussion at the Copenhagen summit include:

    Targets to curb greenhouse gas emissions, in particular by developed countries
    Financial support for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change by developing countries
    A carbon trading scheme aimed at ending the destruction of the world's forests by 2030.
    Any agreement made at Copenhagen is intended to supplant the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change, which expires in 2012.


    COPENHAGEN IN BRIEF
    192 countries attending talks, including about 100 leaders
    To discuss emissions cuts and financial measures to combat climate change
    Conference president says political will to address the problem will never be stronger.
    South Africa is the latest country to make emissions offer
    Due to end 18 December


    Kind regards from Copenhagen,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    This post was modified on 09 Dec 2009 at 07:37 pm.
    • 09 Dec 2009, 7:06 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^2: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    A major split between developing countries has emerged at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen, Denmark.

    Small island states and poor African nations vulnerable to climate impacts laid out demands for a legally-binding deal tougher than the Kyoto Protocol.

    This was opposed by richer developing states such as China, which fear tougher action would curb their growth.

    Tuvalu demanded - and got - a suspension of negotiations until the issue could be resolved.

    The split within the developing country bloc is highly unusual, as it tends to speak with a united voice.

    Tuvalu's negotiator Ian Fry made clear that his country could accept nothing less than full discussion of its proposal for a new legal protocol, which was submitted to the UN climate convention six months ago.

    "My prime minister and many other heads of state have the clear intention of coming to Copenhagen to sign on to a legally binding deal," Mr Fry said. "Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, and our future rests on the outcome of this meeting."

    The call was backed by other members of the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), including the Cook Islands, Barbados and Fiji, and by some poor African countries including Sierra Leone, Senegal and Cape Verde.

    Several re-iterated the demand of small island developing states that the rise in the global average temperature be limited to 1.5C, and greenhouse gas concentrations stabilised at 350 parts per million (ppm) rather than the 450ppm favoured by developed countries and some major developing nations.

    Fast-growing economies such as China, India and South Africa oppose the lower target of 350ppm because they feel that meeting it would retard economic development.

    Here, they also opposed Tuvalu's call for a new legally-binding protocol to run alongside the existing Kyoto Protocol, arguing that the existing convention and Kyoto agreement are tough enough.

    "The main task of this (conference) is to adapt an agreed outcome from the Bali Action Plan [agreed in 2007] and we should very much focus on that," said China's lead negotiator Su Wei. "We have a very vaild system to combat climate change."

    But the existing agreement is not tough enough for the smaller, more vulnerable members with more to lose from rising sea levels and less to lose in terms of the economic constraints of a tough treaty.

    "This is the first time we've seen the island nations make such a splash," said Malini Mehra of the India-based Centre for Social Markets. "The AOSIS call for a new protocol and the way it was denounced by Saudi Arabia, China, and India show that the G77 has now come asunder and the island nations are leading," she said. "As they must - they have seized the high moral ground."

    Mr Fry called for the Conference of the Parties - the official name for the full gatherings here of all countries - to be suspended if its proposal for full-scale discussions on the issue of a tough new protocol was not accepted.

    Chairwoman Connie Hedegaard had to agree, moving on to other items to allow time for discussions behind the scenes.

    During the same session, China - and other countries - re-iterated calls for industrialised nations to pledge bigger cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions.

    But that has been a familiar call here; the rift between members of the formerly solid developing country bloc is a much less common happening, and may indicate that hopes held out by some countries of signing only a political commitment here may not be enough to placate the poorest and most vulnerable nations.

    China has protested an incident which prevented a top diplomat from entering the vast Bella Center where the conference is underway. The director-general of China's climate change negotiation team told the meeting he is "extremely unhappy" that a Chinese minister was barred from entry on three consecutive days.

    Su Wei said the unnamed minister has been trying to enter since Monday but failed despite having two security badges made out. Both badges were confiscated by security guards this morning.

    Kind regards from Copenhagen,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    This post was modified on 09 Dec 2009 at 07:37 pm.
    • 09 Dec 2009, 7:07 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^3: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    The big issue here is the legal form of a new agreement - whether to extend the Kyoto Protocol to cover further pledges from developed nations, or whether to stick everything under a new agreement - and that's been going on since discussions started shortly after the 2007 climate summit in Bali.

    So what can we learn from the issue that might help make sense of the rest of the conference?

    Firstly, bits of text will abound - some will turn out to be important, others will fade into obscurity. Some contain the seeds of a compromise, others are intended to mark a position with steel.

    Secondly, some commentators will bend whatever texts emerge (or are selectively leaked) to the service of long-held positions. Nothing wrong with that - one expects bodies engaged in this process to spin fast and furiously - but the spin has to be taken off before we can see the form underneath.

    Thirdly, governments may not always speak with one voice. One rumour doing the rounds - from a credible source - is that the Danish text is very much the agent of the Prime Minister's office and regarded with distate in the environment ministry.

    True? I have no idea; sounds possible, might be wrong; or perhaps that idea has been dropped into the mix to make someone look good - who knows?

    At some point over the next couple of days, I'll blog further about how the summit works, and how people in my position attempt to make sense of it for you - and why we sometimes fail.

    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 09 Dec 2009, 7:37 pm
  • Desiree McCourt
    Desiree McCourt    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^4: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    Nilgun:

    "UN and EU officials have welcomed the US declaration that greenhouse gases are threatening to human health.

    An EU spokesman said the announcement showed "a degree of resolve" on the part of President Barack Obama to address climate change. "

    Ignorant spokesman or just using a phrase suitable for up-to-date "Climate-Hysteria". Now having the proof of "Danger of greenhouse gas" makes it possible to pass laws by not having them discussed in Congress - Very democratic.


    "The US move came as delegates from 192 countries got down to work at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen."

    Good example to "save the Planet"......
    • 10 Dec 2009, 05:36 am
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^5: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    China will receive no significant funding from the US to combat climate change, the US delegation leader at the Copenhagen conference vowed on Thursday.

    The statement, which shocked many negotiators, was part of a broader US attack on China and other developing countries for not promising deeper concessions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

    China has led developing countries in demanding funds from rich nations to help them cut emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change as the price of forging a deal on the climate.

    Chinese officials did not respond when asked about financing but demanded more US emissions cuts.

    Other developing nations accused the west of pushing an “unfair and inequitable” deal. They insisted that they needed stronger financial support to adopt green technologies.

    The sharply worded statements signalled an intensification of the UN negotiations in the Danish capital, which are trying to forge a fresh agreement on global warming.

    Lumumba Di-Aping, the Sudanese head of the G77 group of developing countries, accused the US, Europe and their allies of attempting a “Bretton Woods takeover” of negotiations – meaning using the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He said they were trying to “destroy the balance of obligations” between developed and developing worlds.

    The industrialised world had a “historical responsibility” to take the biggest share of the burden.

    China would account for 50 per cent of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions in the next 20 years and produce 60 per cent more greenhouse gases than the US by 2020, Mr Stern said.

    The UK has led a small group of countries including Mexico, Norway and Australia to try to find a compromise on funding emissions cuts in poor countries. Their proposal, which originated with Mexico, would see all countries, including big emerging economies such as China and excluding only the world’s poorest nations, pay into a fund that would be disbursed to the most needy.

    Leading countries have yet to respond to the proposal, which will be discussed at the talks.

    More than 100 heads of state and government, including Barack Obama, US president, are due to attend the final day of the conference on December 18.

    Mr Stern said that while a binding treaty was out of reach in Copenhagen, the US wanted negotiations to move “full speed ahead” towards a legal text as soon as possible.

    There was no chance of the US joining the Kyoto protocol – the international climate change deal struck in 1997 – but there were parts of the Kyoto process that the US would agree to as part of a deal. Many developing countries are pushing for the Kyoto protocol to be kept alive as part of a new treaty.

    “We’re not going to do Kyoto and we’re not going to do Kyoto with another name,” said Mr Stern.

    Anders Turesson, chief negotiator for Sweden, holder of the rotating European Union presidency, acknowledged that “some problems are emerging” in the negotiations, which he said were suffering from a “lack of trust”.

    EU officials complained that China and other developing countries were making it hard for developed countries to negotiate among themselves by insisting that key talks took place within the Kyoto process, from which the US is excluded.

    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 10 Dec 2009, 6:46 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^6: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    Dear friends and members,

    Negotiations over carbon emissions resemble the end of a Quentin Tarantino film, when everyone has a gun pointed at everyone else and no one can make a move. Rich nations (like the U.S.) need to make the first cuts, but they won't until developing nations (like China) do - and vice versa.

    I would - following the researchers from Princeton University - suggest working on the individual level instead. It is the well-off people of the world - in Indiana or India - who are responsible for most carbon emissions. A strategy focused on rich individuals instead of rich countries might just get us out of this.

    Kind regards,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 11 Dec 2009, 9:38 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^7: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    COPENHAGEN LATEST:
    A draft deal envisages emission cuts by rich countries of 25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020.
    Cuts promised so far come to 18%.
    The EU has pledged $10.6bn over three years to a proposed $10bn annual fund to help poor countries cope with climate change.
    Environment ministers joined summit negotiations.
    More than 110 leaders now due to attend last day on 18 December.

    Kind regards,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 12 Dec 2009, 7:47 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^8: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
    Hello everybody,

    The high-level segment at the UN climate summit has opened, with UN chief Ban Ki-moon telling nations to "seal a deal" on climate change.

    He told delegates in Copenhagen that they had the chance to change history. But he added: "We do not have another year to deliberate; nature does not negotiate with us."

    Earlier, a senior UN official warned that negotiations were progressing too slowly and that there was still an "enormous amount of work to be done".

    "For three years, I have sought to bring world leaders to the table," Mr Ban said. "Three years of effort comes down to three days of action."

    He urged the gathered negotiators not to 'falter in the home stretch'. "No-one will get everything they want. But if we work together then everyone will get what they need."

    Delegates have been poring over the details of a new draft text, ahead of the start of the high-level segment.

    Connie Hedegaard, the conference's president, told the opening ceremony: "The key word for the next two days must be compromise." "Success is still within reach, but... I must also warn you: we can fail," she added.

    The Prince of Wales, a life-long campaigner on environmental issues, used his address to the conference to call for unity. "When it comes to the air we breathe and the water we drink, there are no national boundaries," he said and I liked that !! "We all depend on each other - and, crucially, on each other's actions - for our weather, our food, our water and our energy." He warned a partial solution was "no solution at all" and called for an "inclusive" and "comprehensive" approach that "strengthened the resilience of our ecosystems."

    At a briefing yesterday, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, warned that the talks had reached a 'distinct and important moment.' "We have - over the last week or so - seen progress in a number of areas, but we haven't seen enough of it," he said.

    Elsewhere, a row erupted after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon called for the summit to focus on limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels. His comments angered a number of developing nations delegations, who have been campaigning for the rise to be limited to 1.5C (2.7C), or even 1.0C (1.8F).

    The Danish conference hosts had been accused of trying to sideline negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol by packaging discussion of outstanding difficult issues from across the various strands into a single informal session.

    Developing countries are adamant that developed nations still inside the protocol - all except the US - must commit to further emission cuts under its aegis.

    After discussions with the Danes and UN climate convention officials, the informal talks were split as the G77-China bloc had demanded.

    One group, chaired by Germany and Indonesia, is examining further emission cuts by developed nations under the Kyoto Protocol.

    Another, chaired by the UK and Ghana, is looking at long-term financing to help poorer countries develop along "green" lines and protect themselves against impacts of climate change.

    This is likely to carry political significance in the US, where some legislators are adamant that domestic carbon-cutting measures must not hand funds to the country set to emerge as its biggest economic rival.

    Here, the positions of the world's two largest emitters are very much at odds, with China rejecting US demands that its emission curbs must be subject to international verification. As I had mentioned before, this is all about US and China it seems..

    The US also rejected the notion that it would deepen its offer of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. "I am not anticipating any change in the mitigation commitment," US chief delegate Todd Stern said, noting that Washington's stance had already been spelt out by President Barack Obama.

    Last month, the US administration announced a series of emission targets. It pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020, 30% by 2025, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050.

    China has accused developed countries of backtracking on what it says are their obligations to fight climate change and has warned that the UN climate talks in Copenhagen have entered a critical stage.

    Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said there had been "some regression" on the part of developed countries, who had 'put forward a plethora' of demands on developing countries.

    Beijing's view is that the US and other richer nations have a historical responsibility to cut emissions, and any climate deal should take into account a country's development level.

    I believe there is still an enormous amount of work and ground to be covered if this conference is to deliver what people expect it to deliver.

    And I am heading back home tomorrow morning since I believe the operational part has been already concluded. What now will take place is the high level / leaders' point of view and talks, with press conferences to follow.
    Plus, it is really cold here !!

    Kind regards,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 15 Dec 2009, 9:50 pm
  • Dr. Nilgün Birgören
    Dr. Nilgün Birgören    Premium Member   Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Re^9: Copenhagen Climate Change Summit - Key Issues
    Dear friends,
    Below are the key elements of the US-backed climate deal agreed in Copenhagen:

    CLIMATE
    One widely-accepted definition of "dangerous climate change" is that it begins at a global temperature rise of 2C.
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends that to have a good chance of avoiding this definition of "dangerous climate change", developed countries cut emissions by at least 25% from 1990 levels by 2020, and that global emissions must peak and begin to decline by 2020 at the latest.
    This agreement "recognises" the 2C goal but does not endorse it. There is no peak year, and no collective target for cutting emissions.
    The EU considers this package so weak that it will maintain its lower pledge of keeping its emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, rather than going to its alternative higher figure of 30%.
    Other countries such as Japan and Australia are also likely to stick with their minimum levels of ambition.
    This puts the globe more on track to a 3C rather than a 2C rise.


    CLEAN TECHNOLOGY
    Sources close to the green business community say the deal is unlikely to stimulate investment in low-carbon technologies.
    That requires either a functioning carbon market with a high enough carbon price to persuade companies to invest, or a state-directed system of financial levers.
    Without near-term ramping-up of research, development and deployment of low-carbon technologies, the date by which emissions peak moves further into the distance, if it happens at all.


    GEOPOLITICS
    The essential partners in this deal were the US and China. India, Brazil and South Africa played supporting roles - creating the kind of deal that suits the emerging major economies.
    The EU did a lot of the spadework on the day before leaders arrived. But reportedly, it was not informed that Mr Obama and Mr Wen had done a deal and were preparing to announce it.
    The EU could have prevented this from becoming adopted as a global deal by refusing to endorse it.
    As it does not meet the minimum standards for an acceptable package that several European countries had put forward, they had a politically defensible reason for turning it down. If they had, many if not all of the smaller developing countries would probably have followed them.
    In the end, the EU decided not to stand up against the US and China, which emerge as the winners of this political game.
    Ethiopia' President Meles Zenawi emerged as Africa's political victor - the chosen champion of France and the UK as they sought African support for their finance proposal. He delivered the African Union.


    BARACK OBAMA
    An immaculately choreographed presentation sequence by the White House saw US journalists only invited into crucial meetings and given briefings ahead of others.
    Mr Obama announced the deal live on air to a US audience before most governments had even seen the document involved, ensuring he set the editorial agenda, at least in the US.
    Exclusion of NGOs and press from the final day's politicking ensured scrutiny of draft agreements was always a beat behind the action.
    Senators opposed to cap-and-trade legislation may call the president over less than firm language on monitoring and verification of developing countries' emissions.


    INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE
    The concept that global environmental issues can and should be tackled on a co-operative international basis has taken a massive, massive blow.
    The UN climate convention is the flagship agreement, and its outcomes are supposed to be negotiated. This deal was presented to the greater body of countries on a take-it-or-leave-it basis by small group of powerful players.
    It is now debatable whether the UN climate convention has a meaningful future, or whether powerful countries will just decide by themselves, or in a small group, by how much they are prepared to cut emissions.
    That makes optional the established schemes for helping the poorest countries towards a clean energy and climate-protected future.
    The implications for other global treaties that are not meeting their goals, such as the UN biodiversity convention, can only be guessed at.

    Regards,
    Nilgun Birgoren
    • 20 Dec 2009, 6:45 pm