Group: Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

Hi Friend,

As you know I am a financial journalist/author who also is active daily in managing forex trading accounts. I feel I have a unique opportunity to relate the discussions of what moves markets quite directly and realistically to the markets that are actually moving on the charts we read every day in forex.

Until recently, the USD has been in the tank and falling all over the globe. But I have been buying USDJPY since its 2009 low of 88.00 reached on Oct 9. Now, two weeks later, it has risen to 92.30 or 430 pips. For a single lot trade that equates to $4,300 profit.

USDJPY is a profit opportunity if you are buying right now.

Here is the big picture perspective behind my trading strategy.

I believe ----

There will be a low interest rate environment {including in the US} for the forseeable future.

Inflation will not be a problem for the US.

The USD will slowly begin rising vs other currencies even in a low interest rate environment domestically for the US.

US GDP will exceed predictions and corporate productivity will similarly exceed historical averages. {I am not referring to this week's 3rd quarter GDP specifically, but quarter to quarter growth in the US going forward.

The USD is not going to be dumped as the world's reserve currency in favor of the Euro. There is too much downside for China, and the other export oriented countries who hold USD.

In short, there will be a boom in the post global financial crisis world that will define our economic environment beginning in the last half of 2009.

The time is now to be looking for USD currency pairs to buy. The USDJPY is definitely one of them.

And chat with me about my strategies or trades via email.

Hope to chat soon,
Keith Long
This article was changed on 30 Oct 2009 at 11:44 pm by Andrei Pehar .

Tip: Keep a close eye on the Dollar. Historically the Dollar has not been this relevant in day-to-day trading, but when it is on the edge of a cliff, it seems like everyone is paying attention.

The recession is not over. Debts are too high, therefore, money is tight, with the exception of China.

My question is what do you do about your own financial position.

Financial and investment risk management should be the core of your actions.

In short: My position is to diversify my income, and then trade responsible in Forex , Options, and gold.

Pierre

HI Pierre,

As a risk manager professional in the very demanding and high risk forex markets, I am accustumed to dealing with economic and financial market environments where issues like volatility or uncertainty impact my trading decisions on a daily basis.

In today's environment which you referenced, I use a protocol called Hedging.

There are all kinds of hedging applications and definitions as you know.

In my case, when I enter a Buy order for a particular currency pair, if the market does not respond favorably by moving higher, then I am alert to enter a forex hedge. In this example, that means a Sell order in the same currency for the same account and at the same time.

I have a broker which has this hedging resource, and not all do.

With a hedge in place, the balance and equity measures of the account remain essentially static--no losses no profits.

So if the market continues lower, at some point I will determine that the market should reverse and head back higher and at that point, I would close the Sell position element of the hedge for a profit. As the market moves higher, if it moves back to or above the original Buy position I have entered, then I may elect to close the Buy at that time for either a break even or profit.

So successful risk management is easy to measure in my forex clients thanks to the hedging resource.

I hope this addresses your inquiry and look forward to chatting again.

I believe the USDJPY has made a long term low of 88 on October 9 and I am expecting USDJPY to increase past 100 and on past 110 and toward 125. That is a profit opportunity for those who take it.

thanks,
Keith

Hi both of you,

The US Dollar’s safe haven appeal came back strong after several months of hiatus in the Forex market. The flow into the Dollar was spurred on by a report showing a drastic decline in US consumer confidence was released.

The data came as a shock to the markets just in advance of the Holiday shopping season, indicating lower consumer spending – a category that accounts for 68% of the US economy. The data, which was at 53.4 in September, fell by 5.7 to 47.7, way off of the 53.9 consensus estimate.

Today, durable goods order numbers are released and could determine if the rally in the Dollar can be sustained. While it is widely thought that the amount of orders will increase, however given the surprise drop in consumer

http://forexmoneymaker.blog.com/2009/10/28/poor-us-data-help...
This article was changed on 09 Nov 2009 at 06:35 pm by Andrei Pehar .