Gruppe: Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

Let's take a look at a couple technical indicators which may have helped to predict the current stall in the most recent downtrend on the USD/CAD pair.

First, we saw the completion of a Fibonacci pattern. Measuring the prior down move which began at 1.0321 and came to an end at 1.0196, we saw that all the counter-moves to the upside found resistance at 1.0244, or a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Statistics tell us that when the downtrend resumes, it will most likely go to 138.2%, or in this case 1.0148 And with the pattern completed, the next logical phase for price to enter would be either a reversal, or a period of ranging or consolidation.

The second reversal signal came in the form of a bullish divergence. Price made a new low from 1.01.96 to 1.0148, meanwhile our indicator underneath (which can be MACD, OsMA, momentum, or any other indicator from the trend-following group), failed to follow through and make a new low as well. This tells us that the downtrend is gradually losing steam and a reversal (or at least and end to the move) is imminent.

What's next for this pair?

Price will likely settle into a range somewhere between 1.0148 and 1.0196 If we break that range to the up-side, then look for resistance at 1.0226, 1.0244, and 1.0288 If we should break below 1.0148, then look for support at 1.0119 and 1.0071

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

The USD/CAD pair stalled inside the anticipated range for about 7 days before finally breaking out to the downside. Currently we are on our way to down to test support at 1.0070, and if that should break then 1.0010 below that. To the upside, resistance is waiting at 1.0129 and 1.0202

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

The Loonie has been moving quite strongly lately as the Canadian Dollar continues to lose value against a US Dollar which has, for now, found some footing thanks to cooling oil prices. But a pullback today has everyone wondering if we've seen a top for this pair.

For now, perhaps - but longer-term there may be still room left to go.

We encountered resistance at the 127% Fibonacci extension at 1.0457, then bounced down to test 1.0411 - also another Fib level.

Overall, since the present move up began at a 61.8% retracement, we might (eventually) see it go as high as the 161.8% extension, or 1.0631 - however not before some cooling, which may bring us down to test support at 1.0321, or if that breaks then 1.0203.

On the climb back up, we might encounter resistance at 1.0457 again, and likely 1.0513.

Has the USD/CAD finally formed a top? Perhaps.

Indications (both technical and fundamental) are certainly for a drop in the near-term. What happens in the longer-term very much depends upon on where this drop finds support.

Initial targets are 1.0539 and 1.0431

Chart at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

The Loonie has hit both of our targets from the prior week. Where is this pair headed next?

1.0445 is the key level to keep an eye on. A drop below, followed by a successful re-test as resistance, may bring further targets at 1.0358 and 1.0272 into view.

More likely, price will range between 1.0445 and 1.0553 a while, at least until we get some key inflationary data out of Canada on Friday.

A break above 1.0553, followed by a re-test as support, may mean we're on our way to test the prior high of 1.0727 once again.

Chart: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

Looking at the current market trends i believe the market is still caught within a very choppy but well defined range trade. Nevertheless, the loonie has managed to appreciate on Friday following Thursday's bearish price action. The pair is now locked mid-range but with inter-day studies rolling over, we would expect to see additional USD weakness back towards 1.1765 over the coming days. Initial support resides at 1.2285 in the form of the 50-Day SMA. With the pair already moving some 250 pips today, additional setbacks are seen as limited for the remainder of the day.

My forex broker recommendations: POSITION: SHORT @ 1.2410 FOR A 1.2100 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.2685.

Regards
Monali
http://www.finexo.com/

We've got a great Fibonacci pattern here, with divergence as well. The first time we bounced up the resistance held. Price touched the envelope and bounced up again after hitting the 127% extension at 1.0166 as well.

We are once again moving up. The 21 EMA is on it's way to meet us at the 0% Fib at 1.0782 where a third divergence forming as well.

What happens next will depend on whether this level holds as resistance or breaks and becomes our new support. If it holds as resistance, we could possibly move back down to 1.0372, and 1.0166 after that. The ultimate downside of this Fib is at 0.9911 – but that’s an extremely long-term scenario, if it comes to pass.

If the 1.0782 instead holds as support, we'll likely range for a while between 1.0782 and 1.1115. If we break above 1.1115 , then we will likely go to 1.1653 – with 1.1320 as resistance along the way.

Chart: http://fx-knight.com/smForum/index.php?topic=642.msg4196#msg...