Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

Posts 1-2 of 2
  • Andrei Knight
    Andrei Knight    Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    Where will Euro Find Bottom?
    Based on Monday morning's brief bounce up on the EUR/USD, some of the news networks are already calling a new turn for the Euro (the very same networks which were talking parity just a week before). I'm not quite ready to be a bull just yet.

    The CFTC just issued their latest Commitment of Traders report, citing an all-time record in bearish positions. There's another round of talks scheduled this week, attempting to convince bond holders to take a deeper cut in an effort to reduce the Greek debt burden. If a consensus isn't reached, it is not yet clear that Greece will be able to meet its obligations and targets for the first part of 2012.

    So where should we be looking for our next EUR/USD downside target?

    According to Fibonacci projections, our next target is at 1.2574, and any up moves we might see today are merely a retracement to test the new weekly central pivot point at 1.2803 as resistance. If Greece gets a reprieve and 1.2803 fails to hold, then there might be an opportunity to trade back up to 1.2968

    Click for full analysis, downside targets, & chart: http://j.mp/zYoov5
    • 09 Jan 2012, 3:58 pm
  • Andrei Knight
    Andrei Knight    Group moderator
    The company name is only visible to registered members.
    The Week Ahead for the Euro
    What We Need to Hear from the Greek Talks
    (and What it Means for the Euro)

    Another round of talks, another deadline came and went… let’s review what’s on the table. Troika and other lenders want Greece to have approval of all unity government parties for budgetary reform, and to reach a deal with creditors currently being asked to take a 70% haircut on outstanding debt. These are the terms to secure a €130B bailout (of €145B likely needed) in order to avoid a “disorderly default”, which could happen as soon as March.

    Glad to have the spotlight on Greece, Portugal has meanwhile started discreetly exploring options for restructuring its own debt. As we wait for the ECB’s interest rate announcement on Thursday (widely not expected to shift from their current 1.0% stance), what can we expect from the EUR/USD in the week ahead?

    With the markets awaiting word on Greece, we can expect to continue chopping in the 1.2968 to 1.3212 range. Good news, and solid support being found above 1.3212 could take us to 1.3315, possibly 1.3601. Lack of a deal with price trading below 1.2968 resistance has the potential for a run back down to 1.2573 lows.

    Chart: http://j.mp/yBT8yd
    • 06 Feb 2012, 2:33 pm