Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

Currency Trading - Strategies for the Global Markets

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  • Andrei Knight
    Andrei Knight    Group moderator
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    38.2 - The Magic Number This Week on Most Dollar-Crosses

    http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/currencies-...

    The US Dollar experienced a short rally last week, which came to an abrupt ending after the Easter holidays. However the reversal came as no surprise for technicians, as it occurred at precisely at the same key Fibonacci level on just about every major Dollar-cross pair.

    USD/JPY

    Against the Japanese Yen, we saw the Dollar rally to 101.02 (38.2% Fib) after previously dropping a low as 95.74 We now expect to see the next support at 98.64 and 95.74, and if price can break below that then 93.53, 92.42, and eventually 91.04 are the next targets. However there are also rumors on the market that the Bank of Japan will intervene to "protect" any prices below 95.00, so this level needs to be watched especially closely.

    EUR/USD

    Looking at the Euro against the Dollar, we see a very similar situation. Here, the US Dollar managed a brief recovery from 1.5902 to 1.5344 (also the 38.2% Fib). If price can break above the prior high of 1.5902, then we can expect to see the next resistance at 1.6165, 1.6297, and eventually 1.6460 Caution is needed here as well, as the European Central Bank has also pledged to intervene, should prices rise above 1.60

    USD/CHF

    Against the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar managed a recovery from 0.9643 up to 1.0202 (you guessed it, 38.2% Fib). If the current drop takes us below the prior low if 0.9643, then support is expected at 0.9380, 0.9248, and eventually 0.9084
    This post was modified on 28 Mar 2008 at 12:33 pm.
    • 27 Mar 2008, 12:09 am
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    Anne Fonda
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    Re: 38.2 - The Magic Number This Week on Most Dollar-Crosses
    EUR/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
    Pivot: 1.276
    Our preference: Long @ 1.277 with targets @ 1.29 & 1.296 in extension.
    Alternative scenario: Below 1.276 look for further downside with 1.2715 & 1.269 as targets.
    Comments: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

    GBP/USD intraday: intraday support around 1.495.
    Pivot: 1.495
    Our preference: Long positions above 1.495 with targets @ 1.5075 & 1.5185 in extension.
    Alternative scenario: Below 1.495 look for further downside with 1.49 & 1.485 as targets.
    Comment: the pair is expected to bounce off a bullish channel support.

    USD/JPY intraday: rebound expected.
    Pivot: 95.5
    Our preference: Long positions above 95.5 with targets @ 96.65 & 97.4 in extension.
    Alternative scenario: Below 95.5 look for further downside with 95.05 & 94.5 as targets.
    Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

    These update on forex is provided by my broker http://www.avafx.com/
    • 26 Nov 2008, 08:37 am
  • Monali Jaiswal
    Monali Jaiswal
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    Re^2: 38.2 - The Magic Number This Week on Most Dollar-Crosses
    Euro: Euro barely moved within 96 pips on Friday despite bad Euro GDP numbers. It closed the session at 1.2862 and gave a gap-down opening this morning. Currently it is sustaining below 1.28 levels and the major charts are over-sold giving a bearish outlook for the pair. The recent low of 1.2705 is seen as the immediate support for the Euro, breaking which can push Euro to 1.2620. (Eur/Usd: 1.2760).

    Pound: Cable touched the highs of 1.4602 on Friday before falling immediately to close the session at 1.4349. Today morning it opened with a gap down at 1.42 levels with the major charts being over-sold. Consider selling Sterling around 1.4316(21 hourly EMA & 61.8% retracement of the rise in the hourly chart) keeping stops above 1.4430(cluster support) (Gbp/Usd: 1.4220).

    Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair surged from the lows of 90.52 to touch the highs of 92.14 on Friday. Currently it is holding below 91.80 (55 daily EMA & 38.2% retracement of the rise in daily chart). However, if this breaks then it can retest the recent high of 92.40 as the daily and hourly charts are indicating an upside. On the downside, cluster support comes in around 90.62 - 90.70 levels. (Usd/Jpy: 91.75)

    Rupee: The local currency appreciated against the US dollar nearly 17 paise on Friday. It closed at 48.67/$ much higher than its previous closing of 48.85/$. The rising stocks also helped the rupee. Today morning, traders await the release of interim budget for which the rally seems to have taken a breather. The improved dollar supplies helped the forex reserves to raise closely $2.9 bn during the week ended February 06, 2009 to cross the $250 bn mark. (USD/INR: 48.69).

    Monali
    http://www.finexo.com/
    • 16 Feb 2009, 11:30 am