Lean Thinking

Lean Thinking

Posts 11-14 of 14
  • Paul Bayer
    Paul Bayer    Premium Member   Group moderator
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    Re^9: car market downturn
    Hi all,

    There is a very interesting article in WSJ about Toyota going back to basics and doing hansei (reflection).

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123543506243454263.html

    The article tells us about Toyota's incoming president Akio Toyoda doing genchi genbutsu (go and see for yourself) in order to grasp the situation and about some of his findings.

    "We are not gods, we are not infallible," says Shoichiro Toyoda, speaking of the company's management team. "Sometimes even Tiger Woods misses a shot."
    Cheers,
    Paul
    • 25 Feb 2009, 5:42 pm
  • Paul Bayer
    Paul Bayer    Premium Member   Group moderator
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    Re^10: car market downturn
    Hi all,

    US february car sales: getting yet worse.
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/Sa3As7hyf5I/AAAAAAAAGD...

    Paul
    • 05 Mar 2009, 7:14 pm
  • Paul Bayer
    Paul Bayer    Premium Member   Group moderator
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    Re^11: car market downturn
    Hi all,

    today some positive signals for car market recovery:

    Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased significantly again in February. Seasonally adjusted, February’s rise was 3.7%, which came on the heels of a 3.8% increase in January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index now stands at 105.5, which represents a year-over-year decline of 2.4%.
     
    Some analysts have suggested that the rapid rise in wholesale used vehicle pricing is a precursor to an improvement in new vehicle sales and may even point to a recovery in the overall economy. It’s more likely, however, that the turnaround in wholesale used vehicle values is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for a better new vehicle market. That’s especially true given that the recent rise in auction pricing has been driven in large part by supply dynamics that were created by the unprecedented slowdown in new vehicle sales.
    see: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/used-vehicle-whole...

    Cheers,
    Paul
    • 10 Mar 2009, 8:51 pm
  • Paul Bayer
    Paul Bayer    Premium Member   Group moderator
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    Re^9: car market downturn
    Hi all,

    this week brought some news about the rescue plan of the Obama administration for US automotive industry:

    Sending GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy isn't a done deal. But both the government and the auto makers are planning for such an eventuality, barring dramatic, 11th-hour concessions from bondholders, unions and others.
     
    The administration would like to see the "good" GM, comprising brands such as Chevrolet and Cadillac, remain an independent company, according to an administration official. Equity in the "good" Chrysler, meantime, would be sold to Fiat SpA, assuming that proposed deal goes forward …
    see: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123845591244871499.html
    I found Ilya Podolyako's commentary quite interesting:

    I am concerned, however, with the absence of any apparent long-term vision for the “American” automobile industry within Obama’s proposal. A New York Times story provides a nice contrast to our own state of affairs when it explains that “Chinese leaders have adopted a plan aimed at turning the country into one of the leading producers of hybrid and all-electric vehicles within three years, and making it the world leader in electric cars and buses after that.”
    He then continues in analyzing the reasons for this shortsightedness:

    1. National pride: The United States of America became a superpower while leading the world in car manufacturing; people in and out of government associate the two phenomena with each other. Accordingly, they want to retain the symbolic value of GM or Chrysler.
    2. Job preservation: No explanation necessary, though the jobs in question are localized. No one has made the argument that the collapse of GM or Chrysler would pose a systemic risk to the national economy as whole.
    3. Environmental considerations: The President appears to believe that U.S. automakers can play an important role in the larger effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by manufacturing fuel-efficient cars.
     
    The above considerations are fundamentally political; they are not the ingredients of a profit-making business. With these goals, inquiry into the potential viability of GM or Chrysler as a private enterprise matters only as a way to distract voters frustrated with selective government handouts.
     
    But this strategy is both unsustainable and unwise. …
    Read: http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/04/guest-post-obamas-pla...
    This is not much different from the german government's ruminations about saving Opel. Obviously no one else can "save" companies which don't have their proper good strategy for a viable future.

    Cheers,
    Paul
    • 05 Apr 2009, 10:24 am