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  • Raghvendra Narendra Dhoot
    Raghvendra Narendra Dhoot    Group moderator
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    Raghav’s Picks : Weekly Technical Outlook for the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty – 30th September 2007
    BSE Sensex – Reuters – .BSESN
    NSE Nifty – Reuters – .NSEI

    Last week I had suggested that as long as the Sensex manages to stay above 16000, 17500 in the short term and 19500 in the medium term is a distinct possibility.

    During the week, we managed to stay above 16000 with a comfortable margin and came within a striking distance of 17500 (we touched 17361 on Friday). After 17500, the next target for the Sensex is 18200.

    While the undercurrent in the markets is extremely positive, we need to look at a few pointers very carefully:-

    1. We have gone up by 1786 points in just 9 trading sessions without a single pause – purely on Global Liquidity Flows. Global Liquidity Flows, as we have seen in the recent past, are very moody and irrational. One financial miscarriage in one part of the globe and the liquidity dries up everywhere.
    2. The Raghav’s Picks Sensex Volatility indicator has progressively gone up from 157 on the 21st of September to more than 235 on the 28th. Volatility makes life difficult for day traders and ultimately affects everyone in the system.
    3. We have been rising continuously on a week on week basis for the past 6 weeks. In the calendar year 2007, we have never had a week on week positive closing for more than 7 weeks in a row. So in the short term, this could possibly be the last week of gains, before we hit the 7 week psychological barrier.

    Going forward into the 1st week of October, we could touch 17500, play around that level for a while and consolidate, before the result season begins to exert its influence on the short term trend.

    Incase the Sensex slips below 16000, we could see a fresh leg of correction/consolidation between 14000 and 16000

    For detailed market analysis, investment, trading calls and, advisory services with respect to investing in the Indian Markets, please mail me on raghav@raghavs-picks.com or use the personal message link: http://www.xing.com/go/privatemessage/RaghvendraNarendra_Dho...

    I’ll be back in Mumbai from the 8th to the 10th of October 2007, and if you wish to meet me for a 1-1 dialogue to know more about how my services can be customized for your needs, then please mail me on mumbai@raghavs-picks.com so that the date/time and venue can be decided according to mutual convenience. This meeting will be without any obligations on either part.


    Raghav @ Raghav's Picks
    • 30 Sep 2007, 2:27 pm