Telecommunication Business

Telecommunication Business

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  • Dr. Michael Mallien
    Dr. Michael Mallien    Premium Member
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    Is 3G going to die in Germany, while 2G will still last?
    One may wonder about the idea that the 3G networks will “expire” in Germany within the next five years while 2G will still last!
    At a recent conference we had a corresponding discussion which based on the following facts respectively assumptions:
    - Predictions of the future data volume span from 17 times by 2013 to 300 times (!) by 2015. All numbers are to be compared with the data volume over mobile networks in 2009.
    - LTE (4G) is able to transport the predicted data volume.
    - No simple and good Voice service is available for 4G. The interim solutions for Voice over LTE, which are discussed and tested in VoLGA-Forum are what they are: just interim solutions or work-arounds.
    - In Germany the so-called “Digitale Dividende” offers frequencies around 800 MHz which could be used for LTE (4G). The frequency packages will be auctioned later this year.
    - The frequencies around 800 MHz allow a range of coverage which can be compared with GSM (2G).

    Taking all this into account brought us to a “solution” for the VoLTE dilemma: just offer Voice and SMS services through 2G and Data services through 4G, using the existing 2G sites.
    As a consequence 3G would be obsolete while 2G lasts :-)

    What do you think about such a scenario?

    **********************
    Since this discussion is related to Germany the same topic in German:

    Wird 3G in Deutschland aussterben, während 2G bestehen bleibt?

    Man mag sich über die Idee wundern, dass 2G in Deutschland bestehen bleibt, während 3G „ausläuft“! Nun, wie komme ich darauf? Auf einer Konferenz hatten wir kürzlich eine entsprechende Diskussion, die auf folgenden Fakten bzw. Annahmen beruht:
    - Vorhersagen über das zukünftige Datenvolumen in Mobilfunknetzen reichen von dem 17-fachen in 2013 bis zum 300-fachen in 2015 bezogen auf die Volumina in 2009.
    - LTE (4G) wird in der Lage sein entsprechende Datenvolumina zu handhaben.
    - Es gibt bislang keinen einfachen und guten Voice-Service für den 4G-Standard. Zwischenlösungen, wie sie im VoLGA-Forum diskutiert und getestet werden sind was sie sind: Zwischenlösungen, also Workarounds.
    - In Deutschland bietet die sogenannte „Digitale Dividende“ Frequenzen um 800 MHz. Diese Frequenzen werden für LTE (4G) genutzt werden können. Die Frequenzen sollen in diesem Jahr versteigert werden.
    - Die Frequenzen um 800 MHz erlauben eine, mit GSM (2G) vergleichbare Abdeckung.

    All diese Aspekte brachten uns auf die Lösung für das VoLTE-Dilemma: Voice und SMS-Services werden einfach weiterhin über 2G angeboten, während die 2G-Standorte für den Aufbau des 4G-Netzes verwendet werden über das Daten-Services angeboten werden können.
    Als Konsequenz daraus werden 3G-Netze überflüssig, während 2G bestehen bleibt :-)

    Was denken Sie über ein solches Szenario?
    • 04 Feb 2010, 2:19 pm
  • Dr. Michael Mallien
    Dr. Michael Mallien    Premium Member
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    Re: Is 3G going to die in Germany, while 2G will still last?
    The discussion continues on 3GSM-World in Barcelona this year:

    http://www.mobilebusinessbriefing.com/article/industry-backs...

    The topic does not describe solutions, but only a statement that the solution must be IMS as basis for VoLTE.
    Let's see how the handover problem between eUTRAN and UTRAN/GERAN will finally be solved.
    • 16 Feb 2010, 10:18 am
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  • Dr. Michael Mallien
    Dr. Michael Mallien    Premium Member
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    Re^4: Is 3G going to die in Germany, while 2G will still last?
    Interesting news from our neighbors in Poland:

    **********
    Polish operator skips 3G for 1800MHz LTE

    Polish player Mobyland, in partnership with peer CenterNet, has launched a commercial LTE network, moving from 2G operations to LTE without appearing to have deployed a 3G network in the interim. The network, which has been supplied by Huawei, is also said to be the first commercial LTE deployment in the 1800MHz band, compared with the more commonly supported 800MHz and 2.6GHz spectrum. The companies have refarmed existing 2G spectrum, enabling them to avoid the costs associated with new spectrum acquisitions and gain a headstart over more established rivals in the country. The CenterNet/Mobyland network covers major Polish cities including Warsaw, Katowice and Lodz, with the intention to have deployed 700 base stations covering more than 7 million people by the end of 2010.
    **********

    Okay, it does not fit in detail to the topic, because the basis is different for Mobyland, but it also underlines what Geriet wrote about distinguishing voice and data services (2G/4G).
    • 08 Sep 2010, 4:02 pm
  • Aleksander Glowacki
    Aleksander Glowacki
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    Re^5: Is 3G going to die in Germany, while 2G will still last?
    Interesting point.

    I think that it will take more then 5 years to bring LTE to 3G coverage level. So in my opinion in 5 years time there will be still 3 technologies on the market, with reduced investment in new features, however.

    Eventual decision (2G or 3G) most likely will be supported by extensive analysis regarding:
    - revenues generated by international roaming
    - cost efficient delivery of voice minute
    - energy consumption of the equipment, etc.

    Actually I have my doubts if a single operator in a given country can take such a decision? In my opinion it depends on the broader telecom industry trends, international market situation and vendors strategies.
    • 16 Sep 2010, 11:13 pm