The parliamentary elections in Hungary have brought the expected landslide victory for the Conservatives (Fidesz-KDNP) and a crushing defeat for the ruling Socialists (MSZP) since 2002. The conservative camp has already secured the absolute majority in the first round with 53.37 percent of the seats. In the second round of April 25 will be decided whether the Conservative party coalition of Prime Minister-designate Viktor Orbán can obtain the required mandates, in the still pending 121 seats, and achieve possibly two thirds of the 386 seats in neo-Gothic parliament from Budapest. This would give Fidesz-KDNP the possibility of constitutional amendment procedures, which could change the political system of the country from the ground up. The starting point of this it is still intact.
The specific policy features never embarrassed to Magyars, but this time it presented all of the attributes of a typical protest election. Fidesz-KDNP obtained in the first round 206 out of 386 seats, the absolute majority, - a one-time political success in the still young Hungarian democracy. Since 2002, the ruling left-liberal political establishment has been sent by the voters in the desert. The Socialists (MSZP) received 19.3 percent and they lost more than 1.2 million voters (from a total of around 8 million voters) since 2006. The political completely drained Liberals (SZDSZ) ran together with center-right Party MDF, but they clearly failed with just 2.65 percent to achieve the 5-percent mark.
For the neutral election observers it is particularly interesting - besides from the relatively modest turnout of only 59.28 percent, that non-voters are in Hungary the largest "political camp" - the fact that one for each four voters in Hungary that gave his vote in this election Sunday to a political formation that has not yet existed in this form a year ago. This concerns in particular the National Radical Jobbik party, which was with a vote of 16.7 percent pretty close to the sensational success of the EU-elections last year. A veritable surprise was also the left-alternative LMP, concentrated basically on the Budapest metropolitan audience, with a 7.4 percent of the votes. Thus has changed dramatically the political landscape in Hungary since 2006.
The Christian Conservative Fidesz-KDNP has gained at least the simple majority in all polling districts nationwide in the first round, with the exception of two classic Budapest Workers districts (MSZP) - that in the economically advantaged western Hungary traditionally strongly anchored Party Alliance is now finally developed to a veritable people's party. East of the Danube, on the flat Hungarian Puszta-State, however, the Socialist Party (MSZP) has lost - weakened by corruption scandals and internal grave fighting - its decades-old of political strongholds almost everywhere in the hands of the right-wing nationalist Jobbik - in these many places marked by poverty, economic hopelessness and crime regions in the north, east and south of the country moved Jobbik to the second place behind the Conservatives.
Indeed, the MSZP has hold the second place nationally, just before Jobbik. But it seems clear that the old Budapest Workers' strongholds and the formerly red bastions on the flat land are lost in the hands of the conservatives and the right-wing populists. The traditional left-wing voters have moved in droves into the right-wing nationalist Jobbik camp. This, equipped with a possible thin staffing political formation that has set the election campaign on personal appearances and a strong visibility on the Internet, and contrary to the superficial analysis of foreign reporters, it’s less a classic neo-fascist party than the current virulent reservoir of protest voters of all of kinds - even and especially young and first-time voters disappointed by the system. And a surprising number of academics and intellectuals profess now openly to the radical nationalist movement.
The left-alternative Newcomer LMP, coming from a juvenile unused appearance creates a classic American campaign, and it shows in style, in content and staffing large congruence to the politically precisely failed Liberals (SZDSZ). Significantly, this party is on the Hungarian flat land virtually not represented at all. Jobbik may possibly secure one-two seats in the second round. That is largely excluded for LMP.
Article written by Aron Gabor Papp