Whether you are currently working from the office or from home, barely a day goes by when you do not hear the doorbell and accept a parcel by a visibly stressed delivery driver. Right now it is the busiest time of the year for parcel delivery, but the frequency has at least felt more intense for a few months now. Even though the year has not yet passed to finalize annual data collection on parcel deliveries and orders, this year should be significantly more busy - thanks to Covid-19 and now Christmas season.
Whereas the average German received 44 parcels in 2019 (Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index, 2020), the number is poised to grow this year. Last year’s forecasts predicted a moderate growth rate of ~5% due to the ever expanding e-commerce sector and Amazon particularly - not accounting for the impact of Covid-19. Comparing quarterly growth rates between Winter 2019 and 2020 so far, there has been an increase of deliveries of at least 20%, and December has barely started (Bundesverband Paket und Expresslogistik, 2020).
Clevis Research expects the growth rate to exceed 20%. The growth of this sector, however, comes at a price. Here is hoping, public awareness and pressure will also finally amount to improved working conditions overall.
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With the ban of only public fireworks for this year’s New Year’s Eve, many Germans were initially anxious that the already modest celebration plans would have been in shambles. The positive side effects of a ban of public AND private fireworks, such as a reduction of massive particulate emissions and the lack of additional hospital admissions, is now being set aside. It is nonetheless worth taking a look at the economic ramifications a ban on private fireworks could have entailed.
The fireworks business’ revenue had been an estimated 122m € last year (VPI, 2020). People were therefore right to point out the financial damage to this sector. The market, however, is pretty much dominated by 3 companies - WECO, COMET and NICO. Together, they have made up roughly 90-95% of the market for over a decade now.
As per usual with any government-induced ban on anything, people complain about the fate of the employees. It is estimated that the three major fireworks manufacturers constitute roughly 650 FTEs. At the same time, the big share of fireworks production of these companies has been outsourced to China.
When considering the economic impact of a private ban, these numbers may give a small indication of what really - or not - could have been at stake.
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